Analysis – H1 2023 Solar & Wind Market Cost of Energy (MCOE)

CohnReznick Capital has completed its H1 2023 analysis of the Market Cost of Energy (MCOE) for 2023 through 2029 for wind and utility solar across six regions: CAISO, Southwest, ERCOT, PJM, MISO/SPP, and Southeast (solar only). This is the first analysis of year-1 PPA prices since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. In this edition, we analyze the effects of both ITC and PTC on year-1 cost for solar as well as PTC for wind. CAPEX has increased an average of 20% for renewables across regions causing 2023 year-1 PPAs to increase. However, the expansion of tax credits for renewables has led to lower year-1 prices in 2028 than previously expected.